Shoppers won't have to wait long for merchandise to go on sale this holiday season, retail expert Stevan Buxbaum forecasts.
   
With the economy slowing and consumer spending sagging, "We'll see a lot of retailers discounting earlier. They're not going to play the game of waiting to see if someone else cuts prices first," says Buxbaum, a veteran of the retailing business who is executive vice president of Agoura Hills-based turnaround investors and consultants Buxbaum Group. "We've already seen Wal-Mart make a price move at the beginning of October. It's not even waiting for Halloween, and that's amazing."
   
At the same time, Buxbaum said, nervous consumers are likely to make changes in where they shop this year. "People will move down a notch in their consumption habits," he believes. "If they were department store shoppers, you might see them a little more inclined to shop at Target. If they shopped at Abercrombie & Fitch last year, they may turn instead to a less-expensive retailer like Aeropostale. They will still be looking for strong fashion items, but they may go a notch down in terms of price."
   
The issue of price may be especially important when it comes to European luxury items such as leather goods. The luxury category will continue its appeal to consumers, but the appreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar has made merchandise made in Europe more expensive than last year. Buxbaum believes U.S. producers of luxury goods -- including
companies such as Coach -- will benefit as a result. "People will be more selective about higher-priced items," he notes. "Instead of buying a Louis Vuitton purse and wallet, they may just buy the purse. Some may also forego the overseas brands altogether and instead turn to Coach or other better domestic labels."
   
As was the case last year, electronics will remain hot with holiday gift-givers this year, Buxbaum predicts. "The lower price point of flat-screen televisions has made them extremely desirable as gifts, and they will remain that way," he says. "In addition, the price reduction on Apple's iPhone will make it a strong potential purchase."
   
Buxbaum also believes that accessory sales will remain strong this season, especially those for 'one-size' items such as handbags, but that the jewelry category may struggle. "It is more expensive this year thanks to the rising prices of precious metals, and you won't get quite as much for your dollar," he notes.
   
When it comes to apparel, much will depend on the season's weather. "We stayed warmer than usual last year, and that slowed down sales of outerwear," Buxbaum says. "That means a lot of that merchandise is back in the stores this year at heavy promotional prices. Those goods could move if the weather turns colder early on, but if it doesn't that merchandise is going to sit again."
   
About Buxbaum Group
   
Buxbaum Group had built its reputation for over 30 years as one of the largest liquidators and appraisers of retail and wholesale inventories across North America. While continuing to operate in those areas, the company has shifted its primary focus in recent years to turnaround investing. For more information, visit: http://www.buxbaumgroup.com